Una teoría muy común es que el origen de los desbalances globales es el déficit fiscal americano. Bergsten ha declarado, por ejemplo, que:
The United States should take the lead in addressing the imbalances by developing a credible program to convert its present, and especially foreseeable, budget deficits into modest surpluses like those that were achieved in 1998–2001. Such a shift, of perhaps 3 to 4 percent of our GDP, would have two crucial payoffs vis-à-vis our external economic position: it would reduce the excess of our domestic spending relative to domestic output, which can only be met by additional net imports, and it would reduce the shortfall of our domestic savings relative to domestic investment, thereby cutting our reliance on the foreign capital inflows that drive up the value of the dollar and undermine our trade competitiveness.
El siguiente gráfico muestra la dinámica (% del PIB) del déficit fiscal y del desbalance externo.... Un ajuste de dos puntos en el uno, paralelo a un desajuste de 2 puntos en el otro sugiere que hay que echarle mas reflexión...... porque empíricamente esta teoría no pasa el primer test visual.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario